Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Major Barriers in the Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.